Roy Fletcher’s Blog, Episode 6: “A Follow-Up on Presidential Polling”

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A SHORT FOLLOW UP

Yesterday, I wrote that public polls are generally showing Hillary Clinton with a 5 to 7 point lead.  I did note one poll that had her registered with a 15 point lead and also commented that the press had used this poll surgically to create a bit of momentum for the Never Trump crowd.

Today, in a flurry of surveys, a clearer picture starts to emerge, but, frankly, you would not know it reading the regular press crowd.  First, CNN released a poll that has Mrs. Clinton ahead of Mr. Trump, 47 to 42 respectively.

Several points are interesting.  First, HRC topped 44 for the first time in about a month; good news for her.  Trump topped 40 for the first time in several weeks; good news for him.  Of course, the press ballyhooed this as a big change in favor of Clinton.

Not so fast is my admonition.

Let’s consider these findings in context.  The last CNN poll conducted April-28 thru May had the following findings; Hillary 54 to Trump 41!  Read that again.  Yes, Clinton has dropped 7 points and Trump has remained essentially the same.  After all of the difficulties Trump has encountered over the last 6 weeks, you would not expect a Clinton decline; this is a big decline in the polling world.

I know you did not read or hear this news in the press, but it’s true.

Other tidbits from this poll are revealing.  In the May 1st poll, Clinton had a 48 favorable and 49 unfavorable rating.  In the new CNN poll she has a 41 favorable and 56 unfavorable; a net decrease of 14 points in her image.  There is more.

Trump had a 39 favorable to 57 unfavorable in the May poll and now it is 38 favorable to 60 unfavorable.  Not much movement either way for Trump.  Given the lashing he’s taken for the last 6 weeks, you would think Trump would be in even worse shape.  He’s not.

Frankly, you have to assume the Clinton campaign saw similar numbers in their internal polling data.  If so, this is one possible explanation why the Clinton campaign has gone on the attack on Trump and why they have purchased millions of dollars in television ads.  In short, the Clinton campaign was faltering.  In truth, the Trump campaign gave their opponent a chance to catch their breath as Trump stumbled from one media firestorm to another.

Why was the new poll not reported in context?  Ask CNN but it does give fuel to those who believe that the press is attempting to foster the Never Trump crowd into a brutal fight at the Republican Convention.

ANOTHER NOTE

CNBC also released a poll on Monday.  It is done by two of the most competent polling firms in the business, Hart Strategies (a Democratic firm) and Public Opinion Strategies (a Republican firm).  I have worked with both of these firms closely in years past.  They know what they are doing.

They have the race at Clinton 40 and Trump 35.  The 5 point lead I referenced in earlier posts.

Because of these two pollsters earned reputations, I am taking a closer look at the CNBC poll to discover information for the reader.

More to come….

~Roy Fletcher

 

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